Blog Post

The One Big Mistake

  • By Travis Echols
  • 19 Mar, 2020

People who are not clients have asked me a lot recently if my phone has been ringing off the hook as though my clients might be panicking due to the market plunge.

This is a reasonable question and it gives me a chance to briefly describe how I help clients manage their risks and be confident in uncertain times.

As of now, I have not had a single client call me in a frenzy. I think the reason is that we have been paying attention to risks and preparing for them.  

The One Big Mistake that can get you in a panic is NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THE RISKS TO YOUR RETIREMENT. 

Here are some specific principles I have been using to guide my clients prior to and during the current market crash.

  • Align Your Investments With Your Retirement Goals. An investment plan that is not aligned with your financial goals is no plan at all; it is rudderless and unmoored speculation, per Nic Murray. Most of my clients are retired or close to retirement and preservation and distribution, as well as growth for the long run, are top of mind. Investing in retirement is much different from investing for retirement. So their market risk exposure is lower on purpose. See my "How to Invest in Stocks and Bonds in Retirement" pdf book for more on this topic.
  • Pay attention to valuations. The market does not give a hoot about your goals. I've been warning clients about high U.S. stock market valuations (like price-to-book and Schiller PE 10) and that the longest bull market in U.S. history would die like its predecessors. Rest in Peace, Bull Market of 2009-2020. Thank you for the gains! This is an unprecedented economic event but part of the reason the market reacted so negatively is that it was so pricey.
  • Lower your market risk based on your retirement glide path and high valuations. I've been lowering my clients' market risk as valuations have risen higher and higher, selling off some of the gains and placing that money into more stable interest-paying bonds. Hence their portfolios have not taken nearly the full brunt of this market plunge and many of the bonds have benefited. Clients a few years away from retirement were more aggressive due to their longer glide path to retirement, but not much more due to the high valuations. Many times over the last several months I've asked retirees and soon-to-be retirees, clients and prospective clients alike, "Is the small upside potential benefit of taking more risk right now worth the potentially catastrophic negative impact on your future retirement goals and lifestyle?"
  • Raise your market risk based on low valuations. I've been reinforcing to clients that when the next bear market (20% or more decline) arrived, we would take advantage of it by not only rebalancing back to our target allocation, but we may even have a conversation about increasing our target allocation in stocks. This is called full dynamic asset allocation as opposed to market timing, pure buy-and-hold, or static asset allocation. We are starting to have that conversation. 
  •  Adjust your portfolio withdrawals if guardrails are metFor clients taking distributions from their portfolio, we use an income guardrail strategy that we review in every client meeting. This helps clients know they are OK and not going to run out of money or cheat themselves out of a higher income they could have enjoyed. It takes big changes in the market to hit a guardrail, but they are there if needed. See my pdf book entitled, "How to Retire Forever on Your Investments."     
  • Stay abreast and look for the cheaper asset class prices to overweight. As this coronavirus-19 market panic started, I have been updating my clients and evaluating rebalancing opportunities. No one has called me wanting to sell. They know this disruption is creating buying opportunities (different asset classes--not individual stock picking). But also don't assume U.S. stocks are super cheap right now either.  The Schiller PE 10 CAPE for the S&P 500 is still at 23 today (down from a high of 34 a few months ago) which is still above its historic average of 17. But no doubt, stock prices are a lot more attractive than they were in 2019. Who knew over the last month we would see the broad indices give up +30% with certain sectors and issuers giving up much more in the range of 50-80%. This has created disconnection in many areas of Fixed Income and for longer-term investors creating buying opportunities we have not seen since the Great Recession/Financial Crisis in ’08-09. Particularly, look at high credit quality Municipals, A-rated Corporates, and Preferreds without having to go out long-term.  
Again, the One Big Mistake is NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO THE RISKS THAT CAN DESTROY YOUR RETIREMENT. 

Stock market risk is just one of those risks, especially if you are retired or close to retirement. Retirement researchers call the ugly twin sisters of portfolio size effect and sequence-of-return risk "the retirement danger zone "or "the red zone". If you are in the danger zone, be familiar with this research and/or make sure your financial adviser is.  

To learn more about preparing for danger zone market risk and nine other threats to your retirement, click below for my free 30-minute webinar. You can join from the comfort of your home or office. 

Also, be sure to watch until the end of the webinar. I will answer any questions you have and I'll direct you to some other valuable resources.
As always, this free content is not to be taken as advice of any kind. You will want to consult your financial advisor before implementing any of these strategies. 


At Echols Financial Services, we specialize in retirement planning, tax planning, and investing for individuals over age 50. We do our best work with people who are at or near retirement, who are optimistic but cautious. Learn more about our no-cost, no-obligation process to help you make your retirement a success.
Travis Echols, CRPC®, CSA
Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor℠  
Certified Senior Adviser
Echols Financial Services
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Recent Articles

By Travis Echols 30 Jan, 2024
Building and maintaining an optimized portfolio can save or make a retiree tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars over a long retirement. Here is a framework for helping you construct an optimized retirement portfolio. The academic research from the last several decades would suggest seven major building blocks aimed at balancing liquidity, income, growth, and safety over a 20 to 30-year period. 


  • Liquidity--Retirement assets are not being locked up or annuitized such that capital is not available for emergencies.
  • Income—Using an optimized withdrawal rate, an increasing income is produced to combat inflation (unlike many pensions, bank and insurance strategies that are not inflation-adjusted).
  • Growth--assets that can combat inflation over a 20 to 30-year period, giving the retiree more income and upside potential under normal and good economic times.
  • Safety--manages the myriad of investment risks like market risk, inflation risk, and credit risk. Under worst-case scenarios, if withdrawal amounts are adjusted by using guardrails, the portfolio can still provide a lifetime income.

 

Here is an executive summary of how to build up a portfolio for retirement in seven steps.

1. Values clarification and goal-setting . Figure out the income objective and capability of your retirement assets in lifestyle terms, then financial terms. In other words, set realistic, specific, financial goals based on your core life values.

2. Asset allocation glide path . Figure out how to diversify your retirement assets among stocks, bonds, and cash, based on your age, risk tolerance, retirement goals, and changing market values.

3. Valuation-dependent efficient frontier . Figure out which areas of the markets are historically inexpensive, and which are historically expensive. Don’t take on more volatility than you need to for the growth you need or desire.

4. Multi-asset class approach . Diversify one more step for more growth and less volatility. Put more money in the specific market areas that are less expensive and less money in the specific market areas that are more expensive.

5. Tax-aware asset location and distribution . Save as much on taxes as possible by figuring out which type of investments should be held in which types of accounts. If you are drawing an income from your assets, figure out the least-costly order for making withdrawals.

6. Investment selection based on account type (qualified, nonqualified) and asset-class propensity and magnitude of outperformance (passive, factor, managed, etc. ). Figure out what kind of investment to use (index mutual fund, factor mutual fund, actively managed mutual fund, single factor ETF, multifactor ETF, passive ETF, individual stocks, individual bonds, Unit Investment Trust, closed-end fund, etc.) based on the account type, asset class, and growth and income needs.

7. Rules-guided rebalancing based on retirement glide path and multi-asset-class approach . Readjust the investment mix based on your changing personal situation and changing market values.

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Here is a summary of the details backing this approach. Also, click here for more background information regarding my investment philosophy.

  1.   Values clarification and goal-setting

Investment planning for (or in) retirement starts with retirement planning. You start with thinking about your life goals...your dreams...your ideal life in retirement. It could involve doing no work, working part-time, or doing seasonal work. Your ideal life could be going back to school, spending more time with family, traveling, ministry, etc.  

Ask yourself questions like, "What would I want to do if I didn't need to work for money?" or "What are the most important dangers, opportunities, and strengths I need to address?" or“Ten years from now, if I am looking back on a successful ten years, what will I have achieved?”

This conversation allows you to create specific goals around your most cherished values. And your goals will be unique to you. You then design an investment plan to help you live your ideal life.

This kind of goal-focused, plan-driven approach minimizes the chances of making bad investment choices based on current events and emotions. Instead, you can choose and maintain the specific mix of investments that can best deliver the results you need--using a disciplined, research-driven approach.

 

2.   Asset allocation glide path

The next major question is what kind of investments do you need to meet your goals. All investments have risk. Even "safe" investments over long periods have inflation risk. No single investment delivers growth, high income, and safety of principal. The key is designing a portfolio that balances them in a way that supports your retirement objectives.

And this mix may change over time. For example, for most people, it makes sense to gradually decrease their exposure to high-growth, high-volatility assets like stocks (i.e., equities) as they approach retirement. In retirement, it is usually best to maintain a flat equity glide path, dynamically adjusted for valuation. This approach protects you from the retirement-danger-zone risks of portfolio size effect and sequence risk, while allowing you to take advantage of bear markets and market corrections. See How to Navigate the Retirement Danger Zone .


By Travis Echols 24 Dec, 2022
Case study of 64 and 62 year old early retirees doing strategic Roth conversions at dirt cheap prices while maintaining their Affordable Care Act health insurance subsidy until Medicare
By Travis Echols 08 Oct, 2021

Protecting your lifetime retirement savings from excessive taxes is a crucial part of holistic financial planning. This involves protecting your IRA, 401k, lump sum pension rollover, Social Security, and any other type of retirement account or income stream from crushing tax rates.

So let's be sure to differentiate tax preparation from tax planning .

Tax preparation , also called tax return preparation, looks backward, one year at a time, to get the numbers right to accurately calculate your tax liability (and how much you owe or overpaid).

Tax planning on the other hand looks at taxes in the context of your overall financial picture. A tax planner not only looks in the rear-view mirror but will look forward 20 to 30 years at your projected tax liability and ask what can be done to lower your lifetime  tax bill.

By Travis Echols 13 Aug, 2021

If you have savings outside of pretax retirement accounts invested in capital assets (like stocks, bonds, ETFs, mutual funds, precious metals, jewelry, and real estate) which have large unrealized capital gains, this article is for you. 

You may be missing the opportunity to pay zero taxes NOW instead of 15% or higher rates in the future. 

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By Travis Echols 03 Jul, 2021

Originally written on Aug 2, 2018 and updated for tax law changes. 

If you are no longer working and have reached the age of 72, you probably know about Uncle Sam’s rule for you to take a Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) from your traditional and rollover IRA(s) each year for the rest of your life. You can always withdraw more, but this requirement is the minimum you must take or be severely penalized. Fortunately, this rule does not apply to Roth IRAs. (The SECURE Act of 2019 changed the starting RMD age from 70½ to 72 starting in 2020, but fortunately you can still make a Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) starting the year you turn 70½.)

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If you have delayed paying taxes in your pretax IRA, 401(k), or 403(b), etc, there comes a time when the IRS wants their taxes. And if you don’t give them their taxes based on their required withdrawal schedule, you'll get hit with a 50% penalty on top of what you owed.

Along with Social Security and other retirement income, this RMD can significantly raise your tax rate. Also read How to Dodge the Social Security Tax Torpedo . There are not many ways to reduce this tax burden. In the past, retirees have used various deductions including charitable cash contributions and gifting of highly appreciated assets to charities. (The latter not only gives you, the donor, a deduction but also avoids a long-term capital gains tax bill.)

However, with the passing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) , with its almost doubling of the standard deduction, itemizing deductions won’t make sense for near as many retirees. Ah, but there is still a strategy. But first let’s better understand the RMD.  

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The latest book I am reading is “ The Psychology of Money ” by Morgan Housel. Chapter 3 is entitled “Never Enough”. In this chapter, Housel talks about  when rich people do crazy things.  

He tells stories of wealthy people who never had a sense of enough and wrecked their reputations, families, freedom, and happiness because of it.

I have also talked to older couples who tell me they once had a much better retirement in view, but the quest for more led them to make unwise investment decisions that left them financially crippled in retirement.

The importance of knowing when you have enough is not only vital to when  you retire but also how  you retire. It can affect how you invest, how you withdraw, and your overall satisfaction before and during retirement. 

Be sure to read to the end where I summarize a few key takeaways.

Housel makes the four following observations in chapter 3 of his book.

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By Travis Echols 21 May, 2021

Whether you do mini-Roth conversions over several years or big Roth conversions in a few strategic years, the Roth conversion strategy could save you tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars over your retirement.

This article will get deep into the issues of Roth conversions for retirees and the ten steps to take to be sure it is done properly. Be sure to scan or read to the end where I will give you the simple answer to getting your Roth conversion questions answered.

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By Travis Echols 10 Apr, 2021

Making big financial decisions immediately following the death of a close family member can be dangerous. It is often best to allow some time before tackling big financial decisions. On the other hand, some people find getting immersed in the finances is helpful in coping with the loss.

Whatever way is best for you, you will need to give it your careful attention to avoid big financial mistakes. The different types of accounts have different rules. I'll address the most common types.

In the case of the death of a parent or anyone other than your spouse in which you are a non-spouse beneficiary, there are many rules that you must know to make the best decision for you and your family.  (In this article, I use the common parent-child inheritance, but the planning strategies can apply to other non-spouse situations.) 

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So, you don’t want to rush in and make decisions without knowing the rules, and you don’t want to wait too long and be stuck with fewer options.

(In this article, I am not addressing estate taxes. As of 2021, only estates valued at $11.70 million or more are subject to federal estate tax. But there are plenty of other tax pitfalls to navigate around. I am also going to focus on liquid savings like investment and retirement accounts, versus real estate which will be for another time.)

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By Travis Echols 15 Oct, 2020

Delaying Social Security makes a lot of sense for many retirees; but there are common pitfalls that can cost you a bundle.

As you know, the longer you delay your Social Security Retirement benefit, the higher your lifetime monthly payments are figured to be. This increase in delaying continues until age 70, after which there are no further increases for delaying.

This increase for each month that you delay filing is not small, especially considering the current low interest rates. Even after full Social Security age, your payment goes up by 8% per year until age 70.

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Here are the five big mistakes of delaying your Social Security retirement benefit.

By Travis Echols 07 Sep, 2020

Are you wondering about the impact of the 2020 election results on your retirement? If so, you are not alone.

The two political parties are greatly polarized. While the Democrat party has moved further toward ethno-centric socialism, the Republican party has moved further toward nationalistic populism. The difference in the two parties’ goals for our country is wider than ever. 

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